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COCKTAIL
EARTH
|
click on figures to exit to actual research
(assuming you are on a wire with
priviledge to the journals
e.g. at a university
computer lab)
|
"IS the climate changing??..."
here are some graphics from the work of
Shepherd et al
Science
291(5505):862 2001
and
Levitus et al Sci. 292(5515):267 2001.
|
|
the ICE CUBES
"PIG" stands for "Pine Island Glacier."
Yes. I find that trippy
as well.
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the position of
ANTARCTIC CONTINENTAL MASS
has been sustaining our
current ice age
for
over 32 million years
|
|
the above table is from the Levitus paper, showing the magnitudes
of various thermal contributers.
i'd like to point out here the
magnitude of one forcing agent that fascinates me:
ANTARCTICA
the volume of ice in antarctica is approximately 25 million
cubic kilometers. i'd like to use the
heat of fusion
for a little thought experiment.
what potential for thermal
rectifier feedback is contained in the icecaps?
using the
value for mass based heat of fusion i found by going to the
webpage served at the "heat of fusion" link,
namely 344.44
J g-1,
let's do a little calculation:
25 x 106
km3 =
2.5 x 107
km3
1000 m = 1 km = 1 x 103 m so
1 km3 =
1 x 109
m3 (3 dimensions)
2.5 x 107
km3 x
1 x 109
m3 ÷
1 km3 =
2.5 x 1016
m3
note that the unit "cc" for "cubic centimter" is equal to the volume measure
milliliter (mL)
which for water is equal to 1 g.
therefore,
100 cm = 1 m = 1 x 102 cm so
1 x 106
cm3 =
1 m3
2.5 x 1016
m3 x
1 x 106
cm3 (cc) ÷
1 m3 =
2.5 x 1022 g
344.44 J g-1 x
2.5 x 1022 g =
8.611 x 1024 J
now we can compare this figure to say the ENTIRE observed increase of werld ocean heat,
the first entry in the above table..
8.611 x 1024 J ÷
1.82 x 1023 J =
47.31 !!!!
the
thermal rectification potential
of the antarctic icecap is
quite significant.
a key idea to remember is that the energy required to
RELEASE the ice is
not necessarily the same as the energy required to MELT it. i have read papers
talking about the potential of the two ice shelves
(Ross and Ronne (Weddell Sea) )
in a scenerio of catastrophic breakup leading to an increase of continental
glacier floe rate.
basically, the global warming is BEGGING the planet to
rectify the matter.
|
in march of 2002, the new york times
had i believe the picture at below right on its
front page.
|
the larsen B ice shelf
was about the size of
the smallest united state of america,
i.e. rhode island.
the BBC
has a nice diagram
that shows that the location of larsen B
is
relatively low latitude,
i.e. the most temperate
part of antarctica,
hence the
first part of the icecap to go.
click on the BBC diagram above to go to the
national snow and ice data center
site showing an animation of actual satelite data,
similar to the picture at the right.
|
|
B-15: Delaware iceberg
below i have provided an example of a larger (delaware is the second smallest state)
amount of ice being released
and a close-up map of the ross sea area where it is banging
around. click on the animation on the left
to go to the site where
i borrowed it from.
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an inconvenient truth
mentions the volumetric effect of
continental ice sheet release
into the oceans and puts the
estimate at 20ft (about 6m) of
werldwide sea level increase
for both the melting of greenland
and an additional 20ft (total
of 40ft SO FAR) for
west antarctica
(site of the west antarctic ice sheet (WAIS)
in the above
map entitled "the ice cubes" and
the part of antarctica more prone to collapse,
containing the two
ice shelves.)
"antialarmists" like to have a field day with the fact
that there seem to be inconsistancies amoung researchers, for example
data i obtained from a textbook of glaciology from the uc berkeley
earth science library put
greenland's cap at 2.38 million
km3
and antarctica's at 30.1 million
km3
but above i used the 25 million
km3
figure
given to me via email by a researcher.
my feeling is that assessing
west antarctica as equal to
greenland
might be selling west antarctica a little short.
|
on the subject of sea level, such changes are not believed
to be new.
at right is some research that has reconstructed
ancient sea levels based on
evidence such as fossil coral
reefs found above depths expected
for that particular species
or
tree trunks that have been submerged below the shoreline.
sea level rise and fall is
indirectly proportional
to the growth of the ice sheets,
i.e. sea level goes up when ice
sheets recede.
you can see by part A of the figure at the right, which extends
just into the
precambrian era
that sea level has for the most part been higher than today except at
a bifurcation point
near the permian triassic border, which is the subject of a book
(as of september 28, 2006 a book that i have not finished)
called extinction
by douglas erwin, but i digress.
i find post
KT boundary
(65 million years ago marked by a heavy line
in this same part A of the figure)
to be of more interest to the ideas presented here.
if one looks at the breakup of the continents during that period,
(i.e. 65 million years ago to the present day)
you will see
antarctica gradually taking its place of today straddling the south pole.
you can see the effect on sea level of this modern period
as the ice sheets have increased while the sea level decreased.
in fact, present day sea levels are actually
bucking a trend
of somewhere between 31 million and 120 thousand years
(if we are restricted to assessing the situation based on this data,
which we are not)
of increased glacial ice.
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|
|
both of these figures, from the same paper, include
18O /
16O isotope ratio
study axes
the confounding complexities of this stuff abounds,
but the basic idea is that
18O is heavier than
16O
so 18O is found in different hyrdological pools
based on evaporation rates of the water containing the two isotopes.
|
here at left we see this alarming trend of
the ice sheets cometh,
during the period since 3.3 Ma
(Mega anna, or millions years ago)
denoted by an admittedly noisy but clear trend
in red and purple at the top of the figure.
though the p value would certainly be under scrutiny by those whose
conflict of interest
is to prove the benign nature of pushing our climatological system at
full throttle
(note the reference to fossil fuels),
to the unbiased eye it should seem fairly unmistakable.
the figure comes from not the first source i have encountered that has explained
to me the nature of the oligocene era,
clearly
(actually, the close inspection of this figure enlightens me (see below))
inaugurated
here by the transition
explained at the far left of the figure from
"small antarctic ice sheets"
to
"large antarctic ice sheets"
in retrospect, this all seems pretty freekin' simple to me...
|
|
Columbia's Environmental Science Department
has a nice little graph showing the
linear relationship between the
18O /
16O isotope ratio
and temperature
(see left)
i almost dropped my laptop
when i saw the diagram below, found on
Wikipedia
the first time i saw a diagram with a similar temporal axis
was in the book mentioned above, extinction.
it illuminated me to the origin of the term
"KT" in "KT boundary,"
though it is a bit less clear in the below diagram.
from some book in uc berkeley's earth science library,
i copied a nice geologic time scale table
that i have been keeping with me in my briefcase.
the figure 3 above left has a legend on the left that appears similar,
but is abbreviated to include only tertiary and late cretaceous.
(continue to left of below figure)
|
my table extends back to precambrian (before 570 Ma)
and has useful correlation for various stages, e.g. the fact
that the term tertiary extends from 65 Ma to 2 Ma and is followed by
the quaternary.
the tertiary is also split into paleogene and neogene,
neogene can be split into miocene and pliocene,
while pliocene is composed of piacenzian and zanclean
with all the important boundaries marked in Ma.
with my table, it is easy to correlate the single character information
in the axis with names of geological periods.
because some periods have the same first letter, significantly
cretaceous, carboniferous, and cambrian,
cretaceous has received the standard designation "K."
having been aware of the cretaceous era and its spelling
as well as the term "KT boundary" for quite some time,
this was quite an epiphianic moment for me.
anyhoo, by virue of my explanations here, it can be see that
the graph choses to separate the tertiary into
neogene and paleogene
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/
|
having come from wisconsin, where growing up near
the great lake of
michigan and south of lake superior i would view
temperature gradients
that seemed to
go down as i looked westward
toward a colder minnesota,
and even colder dakotas,
and having moved to the san francisco bay area
over 15 years ago as of 2006,
where microclimates beat this concept home, i.e. of
the effect of the differential of heat capacity between
oceanic and continental regions.
for perhaps the ultimate illustration of this, i offer the map at left
of the pacific northwest and point out that
portland gets more snow than seattle
because of this effect!
|
i mentioned almost falling off my chair when i saw the
"phanerozoic"
graph above,
perhaps partly due to the fact that the term "phanerozoic"
also appears in the title of the research offered that introduced
the transisition from small to large antarctic ice sheets
above, but certainly because of the
wonderfully complete
record of climate change, which actually is intimately related to
the definition of "phanerozoic."
when i first received the below research in april of 2006,
i had another falling off chair moment, having an inclination
that perhaps someone had read my mind (or perhaps this webpage),
but in my life, i have a number of such epiphanies of connection
and have came up with the nonparanoid conclusion that i have had
a communion with truth
that i have instead shared with others.
the "phanerozoic" graph presents to me a basis for further research,
namely the investigation of the cause of
three additional glacial periods
(and perhaps the "snowball earth" phenomenon, i believe at 780 Ma)
which may or may not be the same as the cause of the current one,
but i had already been intimately aware of the latest
glacial period
in which we currently reside.
the above research nicely connects the ideas presented of the
differential heat capacity of continents versus oceanic regions
and focuses the knowledge by investigating the
opening of the drake passage
which today remains the smallest body of water that separates
antarctica from the rest of the werld, located between the
southern tip of south america and the antarctic peninsula.
a quick explanation
of the above diagram is that oceanic mixing ratios were investigated using
143Nd /
144Nd (neodymium) isotope ratio oceanic mixing
this investigation yeilded the conclusion that the opening of the passage
and concomitant formation of the
antarctic circumpolar current
that largely thermally isolates antarctica from the rest of the werld
occured about
41 million years ago
(41 Ma or 41 My).
antialarmists like to say "it's a cycle,"
and to this i want to say right now,
WHAT'S THE CAUSE?
WHAT'S THE CAUSE?
WHAT'S THE CAUSE?
note: i am using the term "antialarmist"
because if i am accused of being an alarmist,
and there is legitimite cause for alarm,
SO BE IT!!!
however, if there is something that can be done,
then i am all for doing it,
and if there is no cause for alarm,
then this is a truth i want to discern.
however, there are those, especially in the economics community
who seem set against anything that smells like an alarm.
to me they are ostriches with their head in the sand.
calling them "conservatives" seems oxymoronic to me.
if they were truly conservative with respect to
the dangers of climate change,
then they would want to err on the side of caution.
this is something that fossil fuel driven society is
FAR FAR FAR
from getting close to accomplishing!
that being said,
ONWARD.
at 41 Ma, antarctica had moved
by continental drift,
close enough to its modern position so as to isolate itself via the
antarctic circumpolar current
as discerned by
143Nd /
144Nd (neodymium)
isotope ratio
oceanic mixing
in the above research.
|
|
the
greenhouse gas driving mechanism
espoused by researchers whose graph is show at left had
deeply troubled me
because of the implications of
complacency
toward global warming.
luckily, they left a
loophole
in the form of a minor comment about the
antarctic circumpolar current.
the trend clearly discernable in
research given above shouts to me that
today's
antarctic ice sheet, with an average depth of
at least around 1800 meters
has reached a sort of
saturation point and has plateaued
over the last
800 000 years and is marked by very sharp fluctuations
that i believe represent large atmospheric greenhouse gas
input events that are
soundly
rectified by these so called
meltwater events
that i have seen spoken of in the literature.
the mechanism suddenly occured to me:
dry ice snow!
|
|
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|
|
the GIN
legend of above figure in actual scientific article
|
Is it a cycle, or is it an exponential curve?
answer: YES!!!!
at left, the Levitus figure shows a separation of COMPONENTS, including
the cyclical SOLAR IRRADIANCE from other factors including volcanic
aerosols that are nuclear winter type forcing agents that cools the climate.
in biochemistry and medicine, i have encountered an irritating term:
CURVILINEAR. this means you ASSUME linearity of a curve that is truly
NONLINEAR because this represents a GOOD APPROXIMAtion. the blue line
represents a simulation that OMITS the random
volcanic aerosol contribution and the sinusoidal solar irradiance
contribution that looks to me to be a beatifully EXPONENTIAL CURVE.
the black line is the observed i.e. NO CONTRIBUTING FACTOR IS OMITTED.
i have placed below the Levitus figure a figure depicting this
very phenomenon, namely
SOLAR IRRADIANCE
please note, that this function
VERY CLOSELY
approximates the
SINUSOIDAL
i.e. for anyone confused here it
LOOKS LIKE A SINE WAVE!
furthermore, note the correlation between the valley (minima) seen
around 1986 and note how that correlates to the black curve
on the Levitus graph above. in fact, levitus clearly spells out
the fact that they are well aware of the solar irradiance cycle
and in fact, that obviously one has to remove
THIS CYCLE
from the equation to obtain the
EXPONENTIAL FUNCTION
that greenhouse forcing represents.
the lower graph appeared in this
issue of nature.
|
ABSTRACT
(i.e. in a nutshell)
Researchers focusing on the earth system are placing an overemphasis
on atmospheric
thermodynamics and have neglected the importance
of the positioning of continental mass
in determining global
climactic state. Utilizing values given on page F-141 of the
69th Edition
of the
CRC Handbook of Chemistry and Physics, the hydrosphere
(1.664 x 1024
g) outweighs
the atmosphere (5.136 x 10
21g) by 324.0 fold.
The aim of this research is to assert that the positioning of the
Antarctic continent very nearly centered at the South Pole is the
major
forcing agent inducing the current bipolar glacial
state of the earth system. Recent research
involving
e
Nd isotope data
places an initiation of the modern
Antarctic Circumpolar Current
(ACC)
at 41.3Ma (Mega anna, millions of years ago).
Arctic Ocean seafloor cores
have determined
that a "Greenhouse" state including the
Palaeocene/Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) was
predominant prior
to a "Transition" state occurring at approximately the same time
as the
opening of the ACC.
A comparison of
global oceanic heat
content with
ice cap heat
of fusion
yields a ratio of
47.3!!
The mechanism for the production of the
atmospheric CO
2 levels observed during
the
tertiary period likely involves atmospheric events driven
by thermal changes in the
hyrdosphere due to significant
cryospheric mass loss. These events will include significant
dry ice precipitation!!
When considering the coming impact of loss of Greenland continental
ice in contrast to the
loss of Arctic Ocean ice as seen in maps at
right, one must realize that the thickness of
Arctic Ocean
versus that of
continental Greenland
differs by
ONE THOUSAND FOLD!
wyoming |
resources |
partitioning
|
|
|
Sci 291:2381
MFC CGI |
aol |
how to chat |
perl/apache programming |
password |
web services
perl/apache auth |
q&a dude |
chat.zip |
consarnt |
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a chapter on chat |
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CMOS |
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iGO CMOS |
power CMOS
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xxCMOS |
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sheesh |
new job? |
tcpip's UNIX MFC
what the? |
put yer link here |
put yer link here
|
|
Sci 291:2381
|
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|
This illustration traces a time course of the membrane potential of an excitable membrane. In the ascending hyperpolarizing phase of this phenomenon, positively charged sodium ions are allowed to enter the cell. This change in membrane potential triggers the rectifier potassium ion pool whose chemical potential is reversed respective to sodium, allowing the passive return to equilibrium to depolarize the membrane beyond the resting potential after which there is a slow return to a passive equilibrium. I draw an analogy between atmospheric and oceanic warming and the fast sodium response that initiates the action potential hyperpolarizing spike. One can create some sort of mathematical equivalence of the process if one realizes that the oceanic energy level in Joules can be used as an analogy to membrane potential in this transformation. Hence, we arrive by logic at designating the cryospheric ice mass reservoir as the equivalent to potassium ions. The fact that ice locks the heat of fusion in a negative balance analogates to the fact that potassium ions are found with an inverse chemical potential when compared to sodium ions with respect to the cell plasma membrane.
On yesterday's Oprah Show, they gave some corporate lobbyist a short time to attempt to contradict ex-vice president gore and i wanted to point out this map:
http://www.kayve.net/kayve/ant_bal.jpg
which is taken from this article:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/reprint/308/5730/1877.pdf
pointing out that the growth of east antarctic ice sheets as designated by small + signs is dwarfed by the much larger (yes, size is proportional to current glacial mass balance loss rates) can actually be understood as something to be alarmed about. Al Gore's description about the morphology of the Larsen B collapse gives us a clear window into assessing the results of the disintigration of the two France sized ice shelfs this greater mass is likely to exacerbate, not alleviate the problem.
I have an additional comment with respect to a related study that is being misrepresented in lobbyist efforts. The question of sea level was investigated in the Maldives and the ALARMING finding was that the Indian Ocean is LOSING sea level due to EVAPORATION. In terms of assessing the energetic realities of the various forcing agents involved in climate change this clearly illustrates an imbalance, and we must not forget that the oceans, weighing in 332 times the weight of the atmosphere, are the flywheel of the climate system. I have to point out here an inaccuracy made by Al Gore, please verify this data, but it is my understanding the thickest ice at Dome B is 4800m which by my calculations is 15 748ft. Al said the ice was "10 000ft thick" so that would be an inaccuracy more politically opposed than his past inaccuracies about soot being found in Anarctica delimiting the Industrial Age and this matter around data used that has a troubling reversed cause effect between CO2 and warming balance but these matters are testing the scope of this discussion.
The "most published photograph" that aired on the Oprah Show inspires me to ruminate on some
data i have collected. One must note the appearance of Antarctica on this photograph. Antarctica appears engulfed in a all-encompassingly massive snowstorm that gives it an appearance of being perhaps double its true land area. In fact, there is published data:
http://www.kayve.net/kayve/index.html#yearJoules
that notes ice loss being very important in assessing planetary heat balance. Independently, I did a simple calculation:
http://www.kayve.net/kayve/index.html#antJoules
showing that the continent of Antarctica represents a reservoir of heat sink of significant magnitude.
http://www.kayve.net/kayve/index.html#rectifier
I spent some time pondering a list of the United States of America sorted in ascending order by geographical size. Number 2 on that list behind
number 1 Rhode Island, which is compared geographically to the Larsen B ice shelf, is Delaware.
http://www.kayve.net/kayve/index.html#Delaware
as we ascend this sorted list of geographically delimited subportions of what we call our nation in comparison to ice loss events we can correct the conventional wisdom understanding of threshold values of what is popularly known as "the tipping point." On this subject of threshold, I would like to turn our attention to this animated diagram:
http://kayve.net/anarc/actionp1.gif
This illustration traces a time course of the membrane potential of an excitable membrane. In the ascending hyperpolarizing phase of this phenomenon, positively charged sodium ions are allowed to enter the cell. This change in membrane potential triggers the rectifier potassium ion pool whose chemical potential is reversed respective to sodium, allowing the passive return to equilibrium to depolarize the membrane beyond the resting potential after which there is a slow return to a passive equilibrium. I draw an analogy between atmospheric and oceanic warming and the fast sodium response that initiates the action potential hyperpolarizing spike. One can create some sort of mathematical equivalence of the process if one realizes that the oceanic energy level in Joules can be used as an analogy to membrane potential in this transformation. Hence, we arrive by logic at designating the cryospheric ice mass reservoir as the equivalent to potassium ions. The fact that ice locks the heat of fusion in a negative balance analogates to the fact that potassium ions are found with an inverse chemical potential when compared to sodium ions with respect to the cell plasma membrane.
On yesterday's Oprah Show, they gave some corporate lobbyist a short time to attempt to contradict ex-vice president gore and i wanted to point out this map:
http://www.kayve.net/kayve/ant_bal.jpg
which is taken from this article:
http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/reprint/308/5730/1877.pdf
pointing out that the growth of east antarctic ice sheets as designated by small + signs is dwarfed by the much larger (yes, size is proportional to current glacial mass balance loss rates) can actually be understood as something to be alarmed about. Al Gore's description about the morphology of the Larsen B collapse gives us a clear window into assessing the results of the disintigration of the two France sized ice shelfs this greater mass is likely to exacerbate, not alleviate the problem.
I have an additional comment with respect to a related study that is being misrepresented in lobbyist efforts. The question of sea level was investigated in the Maldives and the ALARMING finding was that the Indian Ocean is LOSING sea level due to EVAPORATION. In terms of assessing the energetic realities of the various forcing agents involved in climate change this clearly illustrates an imbalance, and we must not forget that the oceans, weighing in 332 times the weight of the atmosphere, are the flywheel of the climate system. I have to point out here an inaccuracy made by Al Gore, please verify this data, but it is my understanding the thickest ice at Dome B is 4800m which by my calculations is 15 748ft. Al said the ice was "10 000ft thick" so that would be an inaccuracy more politically opposed than his past inaccuracies about soot being found in Anarctica delimiting the Industrial Age and this matter around data used that has a troubling reversed cause effect between CO2 and warming balance but these matters are testing the scope of this discussion.
The "most published photograph" that aired on the Oprah Show inspires me to ruminate on some
data i have collected. One must note the appearance of Antarctica on this photograph. Antarctica appears engulfed in a all-encompassingly massive snowstorm that gives it an appearance of being perhaps double its true land area. In fact, there is published data:
http://www.kayve.net/kayve/index.html#yearJoules
that notes ice loss being very important in assessing planetary heat balance. Independently, I did a simple calculation:
http://www.kayve.net/kayve/index.html#antJoules
showing that the continent of Antarctica represents a reservoir of heat sink of significant magnitude.
http://www.kayve.net/kayve/index.html#rectifier
I spent some time pondering a list of the United States of America sorted in ascending order by geographical size. Number 2 on that list behind
number 1 Rhode Island, which is compared geographically to the Larsen B ice shelf, is Delaware.
http://www.kayve.net/kayve/index.html#Delaware
as we ascend this sorted list of geographically delimited subportions of what we call our nation in comparison to ice loss events we can correct the conventional wisdom understanding of threshold values of what is popularly known as "the tipping point." On this subject of threshold, I would like to turn our attention to this animated diagram:
http://kayve.net/anarc/actionp1.gif
This illustration traces a time course of the membrane potential of an excitable membrane. In the ascending hyperpolarizing phase of this phenomenon, positively charged sodium ions are allowed to enter the cell. This change in membrane potential triggers the rectifier potassium ion pool whose chemical potential is reversed respective to sodium, allowing the passive return to equilibrium to depolarize the membrane beyond the resting potential after which there is a slow return to a passive equilibrium. I draw an analogy between atmospheric and oceanic warming and the fast sodium response that initiates the action potential hyperpolarizing spike. One can create some sort of mathematical equivalence of the process if one realizes that the oceanic energy level in Joules can be used as an analogy to membrane potential in this transformation. Hence, we arrive by logic at designating the cryospheric ice mass reservoir as the equivalent to potassium ions. The fact that ice locks the heat of fusion in a negative balance analogates to the fact that potassium ions are found with an inverse chemical potential when compared to sodium ions with respect to the cell plasma membrane.
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A human face (Linda Brown) on the famous 1954 ruling Brown vs. Board
of Education, in 1964.
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|
